From Hope to Faith: Shifts in the Climate Change Movement — Year 1 of 10.
Last year when I sat down to reflect on the year ahead, I wrote about high hopes for 2020 and this crucial decade for climate action ahead.
Little did we know that a global pandemic of such world-shattering proportions was waiting in the wings. However, nor could we ever imagine that in the very same year, we would see such a fundamental shift in the climate change movement.
As the sun rises on 2021, it is becoming clear that the climate movement not only survived a convergent crisis, it somehow managed to thrive. And in only the first year of these ten critical years for climate action, this has given me more than just high hopes for the 2020’s — it’s given me faith.
So, what’s happened?
1. The Paris Effect appears to be working
The central tenets of what is arguably the worlds’ largest experiment for human civilisation — the Paris Agreement — has long been known to be put to the test at COP26. At this official kick-off event, countries around the world are formally due to publicly rachet their emissions reduction ambitions and evidence their action to date.
With an extra year pumped into the negotiations timeline and covid-19 as a backdrop, 2020 could have been a very destructive year for climate policy. However, with cornerstone moments like Biden pledging to re-enter the agreement, Japan announcing its’ commitment to reach net-zero by 2050, the EU to a 55% GHG emissions reduction by 2030, and China to at least net zero by 2060, this year has seen more fundamental policy shifts than any in recent history.
2. The environmental movement went mainstream
If systems have taught us anything, the unintended consequences of market leaders moving out of damaging practices like industries, commodities, initiatives or investments only to see others ease into the slipstream, means any sustainable change must be together.
Which marks another reason why 2020 was a pretty awesome year. As of December 2020, 1006 companies, representing $15.4 trillion USD are working with the Science Based Targets initiative with over half having successfully agreed a science-based target. 454 cities have joined the Race to Net Zero campaign, 74 countries have signed up to a net-zero by 2050 goal and a further 6 have enshrined it in law. Now that, my friends, looks remarkably like critical mass. And we all know how that and tipping points work, don’t we?
3. Climate change got cool
Remember the days when all we wanted for Christmas was to see an article in The Daily Mail on climate change, or for the BBC to stop brushing it under the carpet? Check these out. Mind. Blown. Now, bring us to Christmas present, and last year a 17-year-old school-girl with a piece of cardboard became Time magazines’ Person of the Year, as well as Vogue and GQ’s cover girl. Not to mention our long-loved David Attenborough getting all Netflix and Chill.
That is all pretty cool, but perhaps one of the biggest moments for me was in music. Music unites us across nations, nationalities and languages in ways not many things can, and finally some of the world’s biggest influencers are taking notice. The Music Declares an Emergency site now boasts 1900 artists from around the world — many well-known, making songs and taking stands to compound their message into the mainstream.
This may seem to some like fringe efforts, but anyone familiar with Roosevelts original New Deal would know the integration of art as a means to stimulate and engage mainstream culture is right on point.
4. The youth movement consolidated
2020 was the year that the burgeoning Fridays for the Future campaign ground to a halt as nations went into lockdown. Greta went back to school, and the headlines — rightfully and necessarily — shifted to covering the unravelling of the covid-19 crisis, real-time.
That doesn’t mean, however, that the youth movement went home quietly. What we gave them was more time to think. The Friday’s for Future movement now has 14 million members from 7,500 cities and spans all continents. What was at first a coordinated physical protest through an absence from school, is now a fully-fledged campaigning organisation, developing initiatives like the EU Citizens Action on the Climate Emergency. A campaign that aims to trigger a public hearing with the EU parliament on such demands as no free trade agreements with countries who are not 1.5 degree pathway compliant. A force to be reckoned with that will, without doubt, grow exponentially in the coming years.
5. Covid-19 had an unexpected silver lining
Nothing about the impacts of covid-19 justifies what has been such a tragic global event. However, a side effect that we can all take note of is its impacts on societal behaviour change. Behavioural scientists know that habits are powerful drivers of our behaviour. And major discontinuity events like covid-19 has proved to be, has acted as a major circuit breaker. Where we used to book a flight to complete a deal, we’re now settling into a Zoom call. Where we used to take the tube, some of us now cycle; and where we used to eat out 3 nights a week, others among us now cook at home and others still are choosing local.
Such a shift has been impacted (beyond the obvious) by three things. 1. We have evolved hugely in the way we communicate with each other about climate change, what we can do and how we can help — and — it’s easier to understand than ever; 2. With the major political and societal shifts towards “Green Deals” and “transformation”, we are starting to — and indeed dearly wanting to — believe change is possible; and 3. Since being in the know about Climate Change got cool, so has acting on it. I mean, if we didn’t recycle, what would my neighbour think. Right? (1)
Surveys and opinion polls are fast gathering data to assess how long term these behaviour changes may be, but my hunch is a significant proportion of early adopters will make major changes to their lifestyle as a result. Paving the way and proving its’ possible for more of the bell curve in the years to come.
7. Finance got granular
Last year, ESG data-applying assets topped $40.5 trillion. News outlets are talking of an extraordinary year and ESG being a “really big focus” in 2021. For many among us, this could be considered a triumph. For many others it sends shivers up our spines, for fear of misplaced money and shady ideals.
For me, three great movements pushed this agenda forward last year:
1. The Task Force For Climate Related Disclosure enjoyed an 85% growth in supporting companies last year. While, much like CDP, the journey to adequate disclosure and strategic decision making is a long one, we all know that first comes the building of critical mass and basic practice, then next comes the ratcheting of expectation.
2. The Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTI) launched a target framework for financial institutions with 55 major organisations in tow. Targeting at the point of investment or transaction is a long sought after climate action. Before reaching the dizzying highs of transaction taxes, enabling investors to set public targets for their portfolios, and as such impact their decision making is a critical step forward.
3. With the widespread abuse of the ESG name, resetting our expectations of what genuine sustainable finance can do is critical. The work of John Elkington on defining the 3 R’s — Responsibility, Resilience and Regeneration — to be more in line with the worlds needs; and Richard Roberts’ Tomorrow’s Capitalism Inquiry in translating what exactly that means on the ground, is the sanity check to the multi-trillion milestones we all need.
8. Technology tumbled down the cost curve .. and up the indices.
Every time I turn a page, I read more good news about the cost competitiveness of cornerstone sustainable technologies which will aid us in our transition to net zero. Despite the collapsing coal prices in 2020 due to pandemic containment and divestment globally, news still came in that solar Photo Voltaics (PV) are now consistently cheaper than coal and gas-fired plants. And — better than that — subsidy-free, utility-scale new builds are too. Couple that with Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)dropping by 47%, onshore wind by 40%, and off-shore wind by 29%; and things are looking pretty rosy.
Oh and back at Tesla? Wait. You remember. It’s that company we all thought would never turn a profit. In December, after their fifth consecutive quarter of doing just that, they entered the S&P 500 as the sixth-largest company with a market cap of $640b. Caveats aside for the moment of the efficacy of our financial system or the threat of a Tesla Bubble, the real interest here is that Tesla — that hair-brained electric car maker — has now become the most valuable car company in the world. Next up for an industry threshold break-through, Nest and Beyond Meat. We’re watching you.
9. Systems thinking became systemic programmes
Needless to say, I’ve saved my favourite to last. I mean, who would have thought it that the dysfunctional bureaucracy that we brits are so glad to see the back of (face palm) would be able to pull together such a world-leading, transformative programme? Driven by the very same mission logic that has enabled transformational achievements in our past, the European Green Deal, sets the tone for nations the world over in how they too might rise to the challenge of the Race to Net-Zero.
Nothing is perfect and there are many constructive critical friends helping fill in the gaps, but for the worlds’ 3rd largest collective economy to throw their hat in the ring and the 13th largest (South Korea) to follow suit? That’s pretty awesome. Beyond the obvious fundamental emission shifts, it incorporates nature, circular economy, citizen participation, culture and the arts, and the formation of a just-transition mechanism. All eyes will be on COP26 to see if Biden can draw the Green New Deal and the $2 trillion plan closer in the US and in the UK if Boris can think beyond its near-total technology focus in their 10 point plan, in 2021.
Had enough of my positivity? Okay then, what next:
Well, if 2020 has taught me anything it’s that the question of “if” has now passed. The question for 2021 is “how”.
And as unparalleled levels of new interest crowd in, the understanding that traditional business logic will not work for our journey to net-zero, is becoming abundantly clear.
Simply accelerating existing sustainability strategies and investing more money to achieve that will not enable multiple sector-wide transformations we require by 2050.
The types of transformations we need require overhauls in policies, mindsets, incentives and rewards, industrial processes, operations, cradle to cradle responsibility, new styles of leadership, and a commitment to restoration and regeneration across the board. This is no longer a transition roadmap exercise. It is a transformational strategy upon which we must deliver.
So, if I had that magic money wand again this year, I would spend it in three ways:
1. Investing in transformation-as-a-service providers. At present, true Transformation-as-a-Service Providers are few and far between, but this a nascent and fast-growing industry. Check out Engie Impact and EIT Climate-KIC as my two clear favourites.
2. Investing in educating key stakeholders in transformation: There is a fundamental difference between accelerating existing sustainability strategies and true transformation, and only a select few are supporting key actors to deliver on it. This is not common knowledge and it should be. A service-oriented hub needs to be created to bring this message to the doors of people who need it and how, specifically, these players can help. Spoiler Alert: This may already be being developed up as a concept, this year :)
3. Showcasing real examples of transformation — at a granular level: Net-zero by 2050 was already an audacious goal for many, but halving emissions by 2030 in the process is a kind of fundamental transformation no industry or nation has seen before. By definition, every programme is a work in progress so there is no best practice. Leaders in this process, need to open their doors to make as real as possible the practicalities of transformations and the lessons learned, so we can all advance together.
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As always, thought and comments welcome.
Keeping myself out of trouble, at:
kate@wolfenden.info
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(1) It would not be right for me to skip over such a playful remark without a footnote. Action on climate change is a right still reserved for the privileged. Putting aside the obvious major emitters versus the most impacted for a moment, even in our own neighbourhoods, one person can be worrying about putting out their recycling, while across the road another visiting a food bank. Making action on climate the right and the cost-effective thing to do is the work of policy makers, companies and smart marketeers alike. Broadening our message and deepening our understanding across societal circles and beyond our own social bubble in the meantime, is the work of all of us.